Variance is an unavoidable part of play poker now. Even the best players in the world experience downswings and unexpected losses. The key to long-term success lies in understanding, accepting, and managing variance effectively. This guide will help you develop the mental and strategic tools needed to stay focused, disciplined, and emotionally stable during the natural highs and lows of the game.
Understand What Variance Really Is
Variance in poker refers to the short-term swings in your results that don’t necessarily reflect your skill level. Because poker involves an element of chance, even perfect decisions can lead to losing outcomes. It’s possible to make the right move and still lose the hand — and that’s where variance comes in.
Understanding this helps you separate results from decision-making quality. Instead of obsessing over wins and losses, focus on whether you’re consistently making correct plays.
Accept That Downswings Are Inevitable
One of the most important steps in handling variance is accepting that bad runs are part of the game. No strategy, coaching, or amount of skill can eliminate downswings completely. Whether you play cash games or tournaments, there will be times when you run below expectation.
By accepting this reality, you’ll be less likely to react emotionally or make impulsive changes to your game based solely on outcomes.
Practice Strong Bankroll Management
Proper bankroll management is your safety net during periods of bad variance. Keeping a large enough bankroll for the stakes you’re playing helps prevent going broke. For example, tournament players might keep 100+ buy-ins in reserve, while cash game players typically aim for 20–50 buy-ins.
This cushion allows you to keep playing confidently without fear of financial ruin when variance strikes.
Focus on Long-Term Results
Short-term results can be misleading, so it’s essential to zoom out and evaluate your performance over months or even years. Use tools like tracking software to measure your win rate and identify patterns in your game. This broader view gives you a more accurate picture of your performance and shields you from overreacting to short-term fluctuations.
Control Your Emotions at the Table
Variance often triggers frustration, tilt, or self-doubt. These emotions can lead to poor decision-making and bigger losses. Developing emotional discipline is key. Take deep breaths, stay calm, and if needed, take a break from the table to reset.
Building habits like mindfulness or mental coaching can also help improve your emotional resilience in the face of bad beats or losing sessions.
Maintain a Study Routine
Studying consistently helps reinforce the fundamentals and keeps your strategy sharp. During a downswing, it’s easy to question your skills or lose confidence. Returning to hand reviews, strategy videos, or coaching sessions can remind you that you’re still playing well, even if the results aren’t currently showing it.
Study is not only a tool for improvement but also a source of stability during uncertain stretches.
Avoid Making Emotional Adjustments
One of the biggest mistakes players make during downswings is abandoning their proven strategies. Desperation can lead to chasing losses, bluffing recklessly, or playing at higher stakes to recover quickly — all of which are risky moves.
Stick to your strategy and avoid making emotional adjustments. If you’re confident in your long-term win rate, let your game bring the results over time.
Stay Physically and Mentally Healthy
Variance doesn’t just test your poker skills — it also tests your well-being. Make time for sleep, exercise, and activities outside of poker. These habits help reduce stress and create balance, making it easier to stay focused and positive at the tables.
Taking care of your body and mind ensures you’re better equipped to handle the emotional rollercoaster that variance can bring.
Surround Yourself with Support
Poker can be a solitary game, and dealing with variance alone can be tough. Build a network of friends, study partners, or fellow players who understand the game. Sharing your experiences, discussing hand histories, and getting outside perspective can ease the emotional burden of a tough run.
Talking with others helps you stay grounded and reminds you that you’re not the only one facing variance.
Stay Consistent and Patient
Handling variance requires patience and consistency. Keep playing your best game, follow your routine, and trust the process. It might take time, but if you’re making good decisions consistently, the results will eventually follow.
Poker is a long game. The more you accept variance as part of the journey, the more confident and resilient you’ll become.
FAQ
How long does variance last in poker?
Variance can last for days, weeks, or even months depending on your volume and format. Tournament players may experience longer downswings than cash game players due to higher variance.
Can variance be eliminated with skill?
No. Even the most skilled players face variance. However, strong decision-making and good bankroll management can help reduce its negative effects.
Is it normal to feel frustrated during a downswing?
Yes, it’s completely normal. What matters is how you respond. A calm, thoughtful reaction to bad runs will help you stay on track and avoid bigger losses.
